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|This bulletin was published on Sunday,
Oct 17th, 1999 just for you.
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This week I’m not going to write anything about what’s been whistling through everyone’s mind. What I’m talking about is the announcement made by the media this week, about “the stock market being officially in a correction mode.” You probably have heard more about this than you wanted to already. I’ll only say that Jeff’s statement, in this week’s Soapbox, (scroll down and you’ll find this week’s Soapbox) is in my opinion, right on the money. If I say anything, I’ll only be repeating what Jeff has already, so poignantly, stated.
Yes, that includes the fall of Adrian Vance. As much as I like the old boy, he’s simply over stepped his bounds, once too often. To that I’ll add, if you’re not familiar with him, he’s the big banana of the www.StockSurfer.com web site. It’s a great site and I encourage you to check it out. The problem wasn’t so much his point of view on stocks, as it was with using our open email service to advertise his site. His site, by the way, charges a fee. Our goal, at RollingStock100, isn’t to line his pockets with our reader’s money.
We really don’t think that you signed up for our weekly email, for the purpose of paying the StockSurfer for what we’re trying to show you how to do for free. Okay, so I am commenting on this issue… I can’t help it! If you’re a recipient of the “open email” version of the Weekly Update, you no doubt know what I’m talking about. Furthermore, his last comments were not in line with what we think about the market. That’s not to say anyone can’t say whatever they please here, but it is to say that it shouldn’t be done as an advertisement for a web site that charges a fee. The combination of the two caused us to believe his statement was purposely misleading.
In regards to this weeks List of Rollers…
Please do utilize the symbols laid out for you at the bottom of this email. I run them through each week and have now made it ultimately easy for you to do the same. I for one don’t dislike the current downslide of the market. This is what I consider an opportunity to excel. Think about it! What better opportunity could you have, than to be able to sit back, with fare warning I might add, and watch the stocks that you know are great, fall to below a buyer’s price? What an opportunity! Please, don’t abuse this fantastic ordeal. Work it for all it’s worth. Simply wait for the tides to turn. You know what I mean. Soon there will be an inkling of news about the up swing of the market. If you listen, very intently, you’ll be of the first to hear about it. Then, all of a sudden, just as the market dropped it’ll rise. Only the prudent, I believe, in a market such as this will survive.
Possibly, this could be one of the best times to incorporate the use to a stop order to buy. If you aren’t sure what that is, check out the Classroom, email archives, or send in an email requesting the info. Either Jeff or myself will be happy to answer any questions on the subject.
In my mind there are only two courses of action. As I see it, you either do the Kennedy thing, (meaning to short your stocks) or hold all your marbles and wait for the market to indicate it’s on the up swing once again. You make the choice. The Kennedy’s aren’t a rich family because of prominent facial bone structure. The old man, whether under the table or above, made the right decision to short the market upon the onslaught of the great depression. This isn’t the great depression, but it is a correction. If you can make money trading long, what’s to say you can’t make money on the downside of a well-studied Roll too.
What I’ve mentioned above is merely food for thought. I feel I can best help you by representing myself as the Devil’s advocate, in a situation such as this. In other words, we need to listen to everyone’s ideas and consider all available angles with a clear head and an open mind.
Consider our list of Roller’s. Two Rollers were deleted and only one was added this week. Combine this with the fact that many have dropped in priced, to the point where I’ve had to replace the buy price with a question mark. Many of the other stocks have fallen into the “close to buy” range. There’s no question that the market is dropping. All we need to do is think twice, instead of once, about which way to jump with our money. And I mean with each individual stock. When the market comes around again, we’ll be ready to prosper, because each of us had a well thought through course of action.
A small change on the web site…
If you’re a visitor of the RollingStock100 web site, don’t be dismayed when you find the Weekly Bulletin and Soapbox are no longer posted on the same page as the List of Rollers. In a never-ending quest for a better web site, it’s been decided to give both, their own pages. After scrolling through the list of Rollers, on the web site, you’ll find links offering to take you to those pages.
Here’s something that has nothing at all to do with Rolling Stocks or any stocks, for that matter…
Along with my college courses came the opportunity to try my hand at writing short stories. The couple I’ve written so far are posted on the web site. If you’d like to read them, you’ll find the links branch off from the new Weekly Bulletin web page. Here’s a link for your convenience:
Before you read them, I would like to add this disclaimer “I’m new at writing, cut me some slack!” I decided to put them up for your review, since I had to take the time to write them anyway. Actually I’m finding the experience to be quite rewarding.
Greetings Trader, from Jeff
The tough days of October are upon us again. It seems that a lot of 'stock guru's' are calling for another October stock market tank. With Greenspan 's comments about overvalued market's and the Fed's bias to raise interest rates, the October blues might be a self fulfilling prophecy. My personal trading habits has taken both of these into consideration, I still use the same percent of my portfolio value for Rolling Stock trades but have moved to cash when I close out other positions. My job is in the mainframe computer field so I am very familiar with the Y2K fears. A large percentage of companies have already prepared and tested their systems for the Y2K bug.
However my personal feelings is that the general public will reach somewhat of a panic state later this year and pull out of the market to some degree. I am saving my money for some bargain prices that I hope to pick up in the December time frame. Just look for companies with good track records that might get hit by these fears later this year. Now that I have did my share of 'spreading' fears and concerns, the below is a reply to a certain individual that LLH and I feel misused the Open Discussion Group. I do feel that the Rolling Stock theory will work in the coming months but would just suggest a little more caution until the market becomes a bit more steady.
Apologies to the Rolling Stock Discussion Group. Adrian has been asked before to stop sending out ads for his services. As for his comments that the Rolling Stock concept does not apply in this market shows either a complete misunderstanding of the theory, or he is just self-promoting. Here are just 5 stocks that I listed in the last newsletter that have generated much better returns then the .5% that Arian wants you to pay him for. While the market is in a downtrend at the present time, that just makes your picks a bit more difficult.
Here are the 5 stocks that you can view the charts of to see that the Rolling Stock concept will still work (only made it to the I's on the list).
SEP-28 close - OCT-13 close / High
BVEW 20.438 - 24.75 / 26.625
CAIR 6.25 - 8.125 / 8.938
CAMP 11.813 - 14.688 / 17.625
DMIC 14.375 - 16.875 / 18.125
IFCI 5.313 - 6.00 / 6.50
Not sure how everyone else feels, but these returns are 'slightly' better then .5%. The choice is yours, pay someone else for info so that you can earn a measly .5%...or do a little research and get the kind of returns listed above. In addition, you can use the Rolling Stock theory to short stocks in a down market. Market conditions are tough right now, especially waiting for the Feds to decide to on interest rates. Go back and look at past rate hikes, once the market adjusts most of the stocks come roaring back. If you feel antsy about the possible upcoming interest rate hike and usual October slump, sit it out for awhile and have the cash ready to buy back in when the market has settled down.
Good luck to the Rolling Stock Group, Time to step off the Soapbox and get to answering the mail. Wishing everyone a successful upcoming week, Jeff
If you'd like to view the past Weekly Bulletins, there are a variety of places to go. Take you're pick! You'll find they're easily accessible for your viewing at Delphi Forums, RS100's Premium Board, Yahoo! Clubs, MSN Clubs, The Motley Fool, Lycos Clubs, and The Raging Bull.
I know what your thinking... What idiot?! Would have seven different message boards for their web site and post the identical information on each!? Well the answer is simple...LLH that's who :-0) If you've read this far you're probably expecting to stumble upon my reasoning for this about now? So here it is: each of my message boards are located in popular "communities" catering primarily to the financially minded web surfer. When one of these investing voyagers of the net drift onto one of the RollingStock100 message boards, the inclination is to click over and check out the web site that's sponsoring it...namely this one, RollingStock100.com! It's just a method of attracting future members by giving them a trail of bread crumbs to follow.
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